KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbove 3.20% 89%Leader of 16 outcomes
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$6.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
91.0% / 99.0%
Spread
8.8%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jun 30, 26, 10:00 PMSep 30, 26, 7:29 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 3.20%89%
Volume trend
$405Jul 222d of dataJul 24
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
SOFR at end of Q4 2026
$0Above 3.00%: 81%KALSHI
KALSHISOFR at end of Q3 2026
$0Above 3.75%: 66%KALSHI
KALSHI
5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?
$3.5K4.51% or above: 27%KALSHI
KALSHI
When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?
$3002023: 1.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?
$250Yes: 76.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSU.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?
$127.4Yes: 50.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
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Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.30%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.40%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.60%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.70%, then the market resolves to Yes.