KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
5.11% or above 83%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$450
Liquidity
$4.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 7:31 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 7:30 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
Kalshi30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
Kalshi2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
PolymarketHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
PolymarketRules
If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.10% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 30, 2026, or one week following Sep 30, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.12% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.14% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.16% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.18% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.8%+2.9pt8%
- 3.9%-1.3pt8%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $245.7K
- 24h Vol
- $8.6K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-29.0pt48%
- 4.85%-20.0pt47%
- 4.91%-12.5pt35%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.4%-1.5pt100%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.7% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5K
- 24h Vol
- $5K
KALSHI2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.21% or above99%
- 4.23% or above99%
- 4.25% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.9K
KALSHI7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.57% or above99%
- 4.51% or above99%
- 4.53% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.4K
- 24h Vol
- $4.4K
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- US defaults on debt by 2027?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026??
- Kalshi prices 5.11% or above at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? resolve?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.10% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.