KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 10, 2026, 12:54 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
4.51% or above · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
4.65% or above 70.5%Market line of 15 lines
4.65% or above 70.5%Market quality
23 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$591
Open interest
$591
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
4.51% or aboveSpread
—
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 9, 26, 8:30 PM UTCNov 10, 26, 8:30 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · 4.51% or above
Loading selected book…
—
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 13, 2026?
KalshiHow high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 13, 2026?
KalshiHow high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?
KalshiHow high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
KalshiUS Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
PolymarketWill the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.64% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 10, 2026, or one week following Nov 10, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.51% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.50% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.53% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.52% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.55% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.54% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.57% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.56% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.65% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.64% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.79% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.78% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.59% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.58% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.61% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.60% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.63% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.62% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.67% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.66% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.69% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.68% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.71% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.70% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.73% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.72% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.75% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.74% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.77% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.76% on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
