KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
4.75% or above · —
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Stored price
4.75% or above 49.5%Market line of 30 lines
4.75% or above 49.5%Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$125.2
Open interest
$125.2
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
4.75% or aboveSpread
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Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Nov 1, 26, 4:00 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 8:30 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · 4.75% or above
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 6, 2026?
KalshiHow high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
KalshiHow high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
KalshiHow high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?
KalshiHow high will the US national average gas price get in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.74% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.75% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.74% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.68% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.67% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.69% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.68% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.7% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.69% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.71% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.70% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.72% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.71% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.73% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.72% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.74% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.73% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.76% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.75% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.77% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.76% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.78% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.77% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.79% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.78% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.8% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.79% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.81% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.80% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.82% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.81% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.83% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.82% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.84% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.83% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.85% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.84% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.86% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.85% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.87% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.86% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.88% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.87% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.89% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.88% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.9% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.89% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.91% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.90% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.92% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.91% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.93% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.92% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.94% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.93% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.95% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.94% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.96% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.97% or above
- If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.96% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
