KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 9:28 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
4.74% or below1%
4.69% or below4%
4.78% or below1%
4.76% or below8%
4.68% or below0%
4.65% or below1%
4.77% or below5%
4.75% or below1%
4.79% or below6%
4.76% or belowLost
4.79% or belowLost
4.77% or belowLost
4.7% or belowLost
4.66% or belowLost
4.69% or belowLost
4.72% or belowLost
4.65% or belowLost
4.78% or belowLost
4.75% or belowLost
4.74% or belowLost
4.73% or belowLost
4.71% or belowLost
4.67% or belowLost
4.68% or belowLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.80% on any business day between Sep 9, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- How this is resolved This market covers the period between Sep 9, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026.
- Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
- The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.
- Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
- Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.
