KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
4.78% or below 47%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$2.4K
Low liquiditySpread
64.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 10, 26, 1:30 AM UTCSep 30, 26, 7:30 PM UTC
Trends
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How low will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
KalshiHow high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
KalshiHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
PolymarketHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
LimitlessRules
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.80% on any business day between Sep 9, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- This market covers the period between Sep 9, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026.
- Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
- The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.
- If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
- Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $347.2K
- 24h Vol
- $14.5K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%+45.5pt100%
- 4.85%+27.9pt95%
- 4.91%+73.5pt90%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIHow high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
- 4.86% or above99%
- 4.87% or above98%
- 4.88% or above97%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.1K
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
KALSHI5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 4.49% or above99%
- 4.51% or above99%
- 4.59% or above99%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.3K
- 24h Vol
- $7.3K
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 4.84% or above99%
- 4.72% or above99%
- 4.76% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.6K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
- 4.75% or above+2.0pt57%
- 5% or above+9.0pt40%
- 5.15% or above+7.0pt22%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026?
- UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026??
- Kalshi prices 4.78% or below at 47% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? resolve?
- How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.80% on any business day between Sep 9, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.