KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 4.72% or above (67%)
Resolved: Nov 3, 2026, 11:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
4.72% or above
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 3, 2026, 10:36 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
4.72% or above67%
4.76% or above2%
4.74% or above61%
4.68% or above84%
4.78% or above14%
4.7% or above54%
4.64% or above92%
4.66% or above84%
4.56% or above99%
4.58% or above0%
4.6% or above0%
4.62% or above0%
4.8% or above0%
4.82% or above0%
4.84% or above0%
4.56% or aboveLost
4.7% or aboveLost
4.64% or aboveLost
4.68% or aboveLost
4.66% or aboveLost
4.72% or aboveWon
4.74% or aboveLost
4.78% or aboveLost
4.76% or aboveLost
4.58% or aboveLost
4.6% or aboveLost
4.62% or aboveLost
4.8% or aboveLost
4.82% or aboveLost
4.84% or aboveLost
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Rules
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.71% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 3, 2026, or one week following Nov 3, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.56% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.55% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.7% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.69% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.64% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.63% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.68% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.67% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.66% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.65% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.72% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.71% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.74% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.73% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.78% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.77% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.76% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.75% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.58% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.57% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.6% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.59% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.62% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.61% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.8% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.79% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.82% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.81% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.84% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.83% on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.