LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Nov 2, 2026, 7:42 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
25 bps increase 73.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
25 bps increase 73.5%Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Oct 31, 26, 11:51 AM UTCDec 10, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "the named outcome" bracket.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Fed Decision in December? · 25 bps increase 73%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Fed decision in December? · Increase 69%
- Also available on Kalshi — Fed decision in Dec 2026? · Hike 25bps 70%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — Fed rate decision in December 2026 · Hike 25bps 67%
