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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Next Fed rate hike?
Will the Fed lower the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
Fed rate hike by...? [Polymarket]
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 84%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 84% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
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