KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 5.26% or above (98%)
Resolved: Oct 22, 2026, 10:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
5.26% or above99%
5.3% or above20%
5.34% or above77%
5.32% or above91%
5.38% or above57%
5.42% or above40%
5.4% or above48%
5.28% or above96%
5.36% or above68%
5.46% or above10%
5.48% or above6%
5.44% or above10%
5.5% or above0%
5.52% or above0%
5.54% or above0%
5.26% or aboveWon
Before close: 98% ·
5.28% or aboveLost
Before close: 88% ·
5.36% or aboveLost
Before close: 68% ·
5.4% or aboveLost
Before close: 48% ·
5.42% or aboveLost
Before close: 40% ·
5.32% or aboveLost
Before close: 21% ·
5.3% or aboveLost
Before close: 20% ·
5.46% or aboveLost
Before close: 10% ·
5.48% or aboveLost
Before close: 6% ·
5.34% or aboveLost
Before close: 4% ·
5.38% or aboveLost
Before close: 2% ·
5.44% or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
5.5% or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
5.52% or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
5.54% or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.25% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 22, 2026, or one week following Oct 22, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 5.26% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.25% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.28% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.27% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.36% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.35% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.4% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.39% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.42% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.41% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.32% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.31% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.3% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.29% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.46% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.45% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.48% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.47% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.34% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.33% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.38% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.37% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.44% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.43% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.5% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.49% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.52% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.51% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.54% or above
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.53% on Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.