KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above -0.4% 90%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.3K
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 16, 26, 4:00 PM UTCOct 15, 26, 12:25 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US Retail Sales growth rate be greater than 1% in September 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Retail Sales growth rate be greater than 0% in September 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Retail Sales growth rate be greater than 0.5% in September 2026?
ForecastExUS existing home sales for September
KalshiUS existing home · Median sales price in September
KalshiUK retail sales in August
KalshiRules
If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above -0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above -0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above 0.6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Macro & EconomyKALSHI(Pyth Index.US30/USD) price on Sep 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT
- At least $51,05099%
- At least $51,12599%
- At least $51,40099%
+54 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $56.2K
- 24h Vol
- $56.2K
KALSHIHow high will the S&P get this year?
- 7,800 or above99%
- 8,000 or above-1.6pt48%
- 8,200 or above-5.7pt20%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
KALSHIHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?
- Above $4.60+5.0pt72%
- Above $4.80-5.0pt58%
- Above $5.00-1.0pt36%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Above -25,000+1.0pt94%
- Above 0+4.0pt89%
- Above 10,000-1.0pt85%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIS&P 500 Daily Up/Down
- Yes99%
- No1%
- Total Vol
- $9.7K
- 24h Vol
- $9.7K
KALSHITexas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 17, 2026
- Above 81,000 MW99%
- Above 79,000 MW99%
- Above 80,000 MW99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
- US Leading Economic Index change in August
- Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
- Sweden rate decision in September
- What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?
- Anduril vs Lockheed Martin - higher valuation on December 31?
- How high will gas prices in California get this year?
- How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
- Connecticut multifamily housing permits in 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US retail sales in September?
- Kalshi prices Above -0.4% at 90% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does US retail sales in September resolve?
- US retail sales in September is scheduled to resolve on October 15, 2026.
- How is US retail sales in September settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States retail sales MoM for September 2026 is above -0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.