KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above -0.5% 98%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7.7K
Liquidity
$11.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 7:00 PM UTCSep 18, 26, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
If the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for August 2026 is above
Settles via:The Conference Board
- -0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Leading Economic Index refers to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (“LEI”) for the United States.
- This market will resolve using the month-over-month percent change for August 2026 stated in the first Conference Board release that reports the August 2026 LEI.
- The market will use the percent change expressly reported by The Conference Board and will not independently calculate the change from index levels.
- Subsequent revisions will not affect settlement.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Above -0.5% is 98%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference Above -0.5% 98% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Limitless — US Leading Economic Index change in August · Above -0.5% 97%
Open markets
Macro & EconomyKALSHI(Pyth Index.US30/USD) price on Sep 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT
- At least $51,05099%
- At least $51,12599%
- At least $51,40099%
+54 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $56.2K
- 24h Vol
- $56.2K
KALSHIHow high will the S&P get this year?
- 7,800 or above99%
- 8,000 or above-1.6pt48%
- 8,200 or above-5.7pt20%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
KALSHIHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?
- Above $4.60+5.0pt72%
- Above $4.80-5.0pt58%
- Above $5.00-1.0pt36%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Above -25,000+1.0pt94%
- Above 0+4.0pt89%
- Above 10,000-1.0pt85%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIS&P 500 Daily Up/Down
- Yes99%
- No1%
- Total Vol
- $9.7K
- 24h Vol
- $9.7K
KALSHITexas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 17, 2026
- Above 81,000 MW99%
- Above 79,000 MW99%
- Above 80,000 MW99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US Leading Economic Index change in August?
- Kalshi prices Above -0.5% at 98% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does US Leading Economic Index change in August resolve?
- US Leading Economic Index change in August is scheduled to resolve on September 18, 2026.
- How is US Leading Economic Index change in August settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for August 2026 is above
- Where else is US Leading Economic Index change in August listed?
- The same question is also listed on Limitless.