KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 9.0% 8%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.1K
Low liquiditySpread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 1:00 AM UTCJan 5, 29, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US unemployment rate at year-end 2026
KalshiUS unemployment rate at year-end 2027
KalshiUS unemployment rate at year-end 2029
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.4% in September 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.3% in June 2027?
ForecastExUS unemployment rate at year-end 2030
KalshiRules
If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released.
- It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31.
- The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2028.
- Values will be compared as published without rounding.
- Later revisions will not affect the outcome.
