KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
38.6% 38.3%Leader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
38.6% 38.3%Market quality
82 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$124.1K
Open interest
$98.7K
High open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Sep 29, 26, 2:01 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If Trump's RCP approval average is below 38.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.9% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.