KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 81%
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$79.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 19.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jun 9, 26, 5:00 PM UTCJan 1, 33, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted??
- Kalshi prices No at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted? resolve?
- Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2033.
- How is Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.