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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. When will France announce a snap election?
When will France announce a snap election?

When will France announce a snap election?

One-OffPoliticsElectionChessSports6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 23%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$24.4

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

18.0% / 26.0%

Spread

44.4%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Sep 12, 25, 2:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes23%

Rules

If France officially announces a snap election for its national legislature or head of government before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A snap election announcement must be made by a person or body with legal authority to call elections in the specified country and must specify an actual election date.
  • The election must be called to occur at least 90 days earlier than either the previously scheduled election date or the latest constitutionally required date.
  • The announcement itself must occur before the deadline at 11:59 PM ET, regardless of when the election is scheduled.
  • Examples that qualify include: Prime Minister dissolving parliament for early elections, President resigning triggering constitutionally-mandated early elections, votes of no confidence requiring new elections, or governing coalition collapse leading to early elections.
  • Regional or local elections do not qualify - only national elections for the legislature or head of government count.

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Rules

If France officially announces a snap election for its national legislature or head of government before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A snap election announcement must be made by a person or body with legal authority to call elections in the specified country and must specify an actual election date.
  • The election must be called to occur at least 90 days earlier than either the previously scheduled election date or the latest constitutionally required date.
  • The announcement itself must occur before the deadline at 11:59 PM ET, regardless of when the election is scheduled.
  • Examples that qualify include: Prime Minister dissolving parliament for early elections, President resigning triggering constitutionally-mandated early elections, votes of no confidence requiring new elections, or governing coalition collapse leading to early elections.
  • Regional or local elections do not qualify - only national elections for the legislature or head of government count.