KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Xiaomi (96%)
Resolved: Oct 23, 2026, 2:51 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 1:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
XiaomiWon
GLMLost
KimiLost
DeepSeekLost
MiniMaxLost
Thinking MachinesLost
NvidiaLost
MistralLost
GoogleLost
OpenAILost
CohereLost
AlibabaLost
MetaLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. ban any open-source AI model in 2026?
KalshiWill open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsRules
If Xiaomi is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Artificial Analysis - Open Source
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Xiaomi
- If Xiaomi is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- GLM
- If GLM is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kimi
- If Kimi is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- DeepSeek
- If DeepSeek is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- MiniMax
- If MiniMax is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Thinking Machines
- If Thinking Machines is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Nvidia
- If Nvidia is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mistral
- If Mistral is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Google is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- OpenAI
- If OpenAI is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cohere
- If Cohere is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Alibaba
- If Alibaba is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Meta
- If Meta is the Highest Ranked model on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (Open Source) on Oct 23, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.