KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 20.4%+6.0ptLeader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
September 30 20.4%+6.0ptMarket quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.1K
Open interest
$9.3K
Medium open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 25, 26, 4:30 PM UTCOct 6, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRules
If Sep 30, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- Daily counts will be evaluated from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
Rules for each outcome
- September 30
- If Sep 30, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- October 2
- If Oct 2, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- September 28
- If Sep 28, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- October 1
- If Oct 1, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- October 4
- If Oct 4, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- October 3
- If Oct 3, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- September 29
- If Sep 29, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.