KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 0.0% 84%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2
Liquidity
$2.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 6:30 PM UTCApr 29, 27, 12:29 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in Q2 2027?
KalshiWill the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed -1.5% in Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed -2.5% in Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed 1% in Q4 2026?
ForecastExRules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data.
- The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q1 2027, or 3 months following that expected date of data release.
- Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt53%
- No change-2.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.1K
- 24h Vol
- $41.4K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $644.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.4K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Total Vol
- $366K
- 24h Vol
- $12.7K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $88.4K
- 24h Vol
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US recession by end of 2026?
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US real GDP growth in Q1 2027??
- Kalshi prices Above 0.0% at 84% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does US real GDP growth in Q1 2027? resolve?
- US real GDP growth in Q1 2027? is scheduled to resolve on April 29, 2027.
- How is US real GDP growth in Q1 2027? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.