KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Stephen Miran 14%+7.7ptLeader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$109.4K
High liquiditySpread
5.2 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Trump nominate a Federal Reserve governor?
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PolymarketLisa Cook out as Fed Governor by which date?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by which date?
PolymarketRules
If the named outcome is nominated as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027. then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Library of Congress
- The nomination must be sent by the President and received by the United States Senate.
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate43.8%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-2.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.9pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Stephen Miran at 14% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? resolve?
- Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome is nominated as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027. then the market resolves to Yes.