KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 1.00% 89%+1.0ptLeader of 21 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2
Liquidity
$1.9K
Low liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 29, 26, 6:00 PM UTCJan 1, 32, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.
- If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 2.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt51.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt44.2%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.3M
- 24h Vol
- $3M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt49.8%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.7%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.9pt2%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.6pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.1pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed funds rate at end of 2031?
- Kalshi prices Above 1.00% at 89% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Fed funds rate at end of 2031 resolve?
- Fed funds rate at end of 2031 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2032.
- How is Fed funds rate at end of 2031 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.