KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Exactly 2 63.2%-2.1ptLeader of 13 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$8.6K
Liquidity
$71.8K
High liquiditySpread
1.8 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Feb 26, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the number of rate changes before 2027 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve
- A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one).
- A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.
Open markets
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-11.0pt52%
- 25 bps increase+11.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.7pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6M
- 24h Vol
- $2.9M
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed maintains rate-9.0pt51.5%
- Hike 25bps+11.0pt44.7%
- Hike >25bps1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+2.7pt94.1%
- Exactly 1 cut-2.0pt4%
- Exactly 2 cuts-4.3pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+2.1pt97.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-3.3pt2.1%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.4pt0%
+10 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in October 2026
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt52.6%
- Hike 25bps+10.0pt40.3%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $245.4K
POLYMARKETFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase+7.0pt66%
- No change-4.0pt30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-2.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Number of Fed rate changes before 2027?
- Kalshi prices Exactly 2 at 63% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 resolve?
- Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.