KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 2:16 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
At least 1730K 0%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Sep 10, 26, 5:45 PM UTCSep 17, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Trends
0%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.6% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.3% in September 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExFed Decision in September?
PolymarketUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiWill real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 5, 2026 is at least
- 1730K, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment figure reported by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration in its Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ending Sep 5, 2026.
- The market will use the advance figure first published for the specified week.
- The following week's revision will not affect resolution.
- 1740K, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+17.0pt81%
- No change-19.0pt18%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $124M
- 24h Vol
- $11.7M
KALSHIWisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 447,500 jobs96%
- Above 450,000 jobs94%
- Above 452,500 jobs84%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $116.3K
- 24h Vol
- $9.8K
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%96%
- Above 3.3%+23.0pt88%
- Above 3.1%86%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30.6K
- 24h Vol
- $9.2K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes-1.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.4K
POLYMARKETBrazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
- -0.3% to -0.1%+3.0pt32%
- 0.0% to 0.2%+2.5pt28%
- 0.3% to 0.5%-5.5pt9%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP93%
- Above -4.5% of GDP84%
- Above -4.0% of GDP51%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24.5K
- 24h Vol
- $3.9K
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- China Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Recession in 2027?
- GDP growth in 2026
- Unemployment in September
- How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
- Will Wyoming's unemployment rate remain below 3.5% in 2026?
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- 2026: Trump's bad year?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Continuing jobless claims for the week ending Sep 5, 2026?
- Kalshi prices At least 1730K at 0% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does Continuing jobless claims for the week ending Sep 5, 2026 resolve?
- Continuing jobless claims for the week ending Sep 5, 2026 is scheduled to resolve on September 17, 2026.
- How is Continuing jobless claims for the week ending Sep 5, 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 5, 2026 is at least