KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least 1730K 99%Market line of 11 lines
At least 1730K 99%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.7K
Open interest
$49
Low open interestSpread
24.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 4:30 PM UTCOct 8, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3, 2026
KalshiUS Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 8, 2026)
Robinhood (Rothera)US Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 15, 2026)
Robinhood (Rothera)Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 5% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.6% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExRules
If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 is at least 1730K, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment figure reported by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration in its Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ending Sep 26, 2026. The market will use the advance figure first published for the specified week. The following week's revision will not affect resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 1730K
- If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 is at least 1730K, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1660K
- If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 is at least 1660K, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1680K
- If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 is at least 1680K, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1690K
- If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 is at least 1690K, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1710K
- If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 is at least 1710K, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1760K
- If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 is at least 1760K, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1750K
- If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 is at least 1750K, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1670K
- If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 is at least 1670K, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1700K
- If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 is at least 1700K, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1720K
- If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 is at least 1720K, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1740K
- If the U.S. seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 is at least 1740K, then the market resolves to Yes.