Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3, 2026
15.0 pts (24h)One-OffBusiness & Corporate4h
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least 200,000 54%-15.0ptMarket line of 11 lines
At least 200,000 54%-15.0ptMarket quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$9.5K
Open interest
$11.6K
Medium open interestMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 4:00 PM UTCOct 8, 26, 12:25 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
If there are at least 200,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Department of Labor
Rules for each outcome
- At least 175,000
- If there are at least 175,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 180,000
- If there are at least 180,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 190,000
- If there are at least 190,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 185,000
- If there are at least 185,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 195,000
- If there are at least 195,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 200,000
- If there are at least 200,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 205,000
- If there are at least 205,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 210,000
- If there are at least 210,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 225,000
- If there are at least 225,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 215,000
- If there are at least 215,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 220,000
- If there are at least 220,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
