KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above -0.40 98%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.1K
Liquidity
$4.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 7:00 PM UTCSep 21, 26, 12:24 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in September
KalshiFed rate decision in October 2026
Robinhood (Rothera)Bank of Japan Decision in October?
PolymarketUS active housing listings in September
KalshiFed Rate Decision (Jul 2027)
Robinhood (Rothera)Bank of Canada Decision in December?
PolymarketRules
If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index reported for for August 2026 is above
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - CFNAI
- -0.40, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (“CFNAI”) refers to the headline monthly index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- It does not refer to the CFNAI three-month moving average (“CFNAI-MA3”) or the CFNAI Diffusion Index.
- This market will resolve using the value for August 2026 published in the first Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago release that reports the August 2026 CFNAI.
- Subsequent revisions will not affect settlement.
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt54.5%
- No change-6.0pt43.6%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.7M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
- Hike 25bps+4.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-6.0pt43.7%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.1pt97.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.3pt2.1%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt0%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt66%
- No change-1.0pt30.1%
- 25 bps decrease1.9%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)-2.0pt59.4%
- 3 (75 bps)+4.9pt22.8%
- 1 (25 bps)-2.0pt16.8%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-1.2pt94%
- Exactly 1 cut+1.0pt5%
- Exactly 2 cuts+0.2pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed rate decision in October 2026
- Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in September
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Bank of Japan Decision in October?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Number of rate hikes in 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August?
- Kalshi prices Above -0.40 at 98% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August resolve?
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August is scheduled to resolve on September 21, 2026.
- How is Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index reported for for August 2026 is above