KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Reserve Bank of New Zealand 99%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.3K
Liquidity
$27.3K
High liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 39 minutes ago
May 15, 26, 9:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
If the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the federal funds rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal ReserveEuropean Central BankBank of EnglandBank of JapanBank of CanadaReserve Bank of AustraliaReserve Bank of New ZealandNorges BankRiksbankSwiss National Bank
- A rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting.
- Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.
- The market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.
- If the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.
- If the the named outcome raising the Bank Rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which central banks will hike before 2027??
- Kalshi prices Reserve Bank of New Zealand at 99% as of August 31, 2026.
- When does Which central banks will hike before 2027? resolve?
- Which central banks will hike before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Which central banks will hike before 2027? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the federal funds rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
