KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 18, 2026, 7:16 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored price
No 79.5%
No 79.5%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$0
Open interest unknownBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 28, 26, 8:00 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any UN country change its capital city before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any UN country change its official name before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will change its name by 2050? [add responses]
Manifold MarketsWill a country change its national flag by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersBloomberg NewsThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalPoliticoAxiosBBCCNNFox NewsABCCBSMSNBCSemaforAl Jazeerathe government of a United Nations member state
- A capital change counts once a law, constitutional amendment, decree or other legally binding act made after Issuance establishes a different city as the capital of a United Nations member state and fixes when the change takes effect, even if it takes effect after Jan 1, 2028. A capital change that was already legally established and scheduled before Issuance does not count.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.