KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 14, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Above 4.20% 67%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$235
Liquidity
$235
Low liquiditySpread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 12, 26, 9:00 PM UTCOct 9, 26, 11:55 AM UTC
Trends
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will inflation in Brazil be below 4.00% in Dec 2026?
KalshiWhat will inflation in Brazil be in Dec 2026?
KalshiHow high will Brazil inflation get this year?
KalshiWhen will Brazil have a higher MoM inflation rate than Argentina during 2026?
Manifold MarketsEuro area’s inflation rate in 2026
FutuurUS annual inflation rate (CPI) at the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 3.60% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 3.70% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 3.80% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 3.90% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.00% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.10% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase78.4%
- No change20.6%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $148.5M
- 24h Vol
- $7.6M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+1.0pt89%
- No-1.0pt11%
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- 24h Vol
- $74.5K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt84%
- September Meeting+1.0pt80%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHISeptember 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%18%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above6%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below5%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.5K
POLYMARKETSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
- >5.0%+10.3pt28.9%
- 4.7-5.0%+11.8pt25%
- 4.4-4.7%+2.8pt23.1%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+11.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%97%
- Above 3.3%96%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.6K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI in September
- September Inflation US - Annual
- PPI YoY - September 2026
- Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- September Inflation China - Annual
- How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?
- What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Olathe?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Brazil inflation rate in September?
- Kalshi prices Above 4.20% at 67% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Brazil inflation rate in September resolve?
- Brazil inflation rate in September is scheduled to resolve on October 9, 2026.
- How is Brazil inflation rate in September settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 3.60% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.