KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 5% (99%)
Resolved: Sep 14, 2026, 2:31 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 14, 2026, 10:05 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Above 5%87%
Above 5.2%1%
Above 5.1%75%
Above 5.7%1%
Above 5.95%1%
Above 5.3%22%
Above 5.75%2%
Above 5.55%3%
Above 5.65%4%
Above 5.45%1%
Above 5%Won
Above 5.1%Lost
Above 5.3%Lost
Above 5.85%Lost
Above 5.55%Lost
Above 5.65%Lost
Above 5.7%Lost
Above 5.75%Lost
Above 5.2%Lost
Above 6.1%Lost
Above 5.45%Lost
Above 5.95%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Best AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Qwen scores above 5% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenRouter - AI Market Share
- This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated values for the week of Sep 10, 2026.
- If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If Qwen scores above 5.1% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.