KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic by 91 to 130 14%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$6.5K
Medium liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
May 15, 26, 2:00 PM UTCMay 6, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be voted President of the United States by the Electoral College in 2028?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiRules
If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 211-538 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:United States Congress
- If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 131-210 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 91-130 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 61-90 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 31-60 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 11-30 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2028 Electoral College margin of victory??
- Kalshi prices Democratic by 91 to 130 at 14% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 2028 Electoral College margin of victory? resolve?
- 2028 Electoral College margin of victory? is scheduled to resolve on May 6, 2029.
- How is 2028 Electoral College margin of victory? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 211-538 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.