US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September?

Futuur prices 3.10% at 50% as of October 23, 2026.

When does US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September resolve?

US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September is scheduled to resolve on October 29, 2026.

How is US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September settled?

Futuur settles this market as follows: Markets in this event resolve according to the seasonally adjusted 12-month percentage change in core PCE (the PCE price index excluding food and energy) for the period ending September 2026, as published to one decimal place in the BEA Personal Income and Outlays release scheduled for October 29, 2026.

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change-3.0pt91.1%
• 25 bps increase+3.0pt8.9%
• 25 bps decrease-0.1pt0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$60.5M

24h Vol

$3.7M

KALSHI

Core CPI YoY in November

• Above 2.2%+1.0pt98.5%
• Above 2.0%98.5%
• Above 2.3%+2.0pt98.5%

POLYMARKET

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

• Yes+2.5pt77.2%
• No-2.5pt22.8%

Total Vol

$1M

24h Vol

$48.6K

POLYMARKET

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

• Hike–Pause–Hike+1.5pt72%
• Hike–Pause–Pause-2.5pt21%
• Hike–Hike–Hike+2.6pt6%

+6 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

• 2 (50 bps)+1.5pt69.3%
• 1 (25 bps)-2.0pt22.8%
• 3 (75 bps)+0.6pt7.9%

+3 more outcomes

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above 0.0%+2.0pt98.5%
• Above -0.1%-1.0pt99%
• Above 0.1%+3.0pt89.5%

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• How much will core PCE increase in Sep 2026?
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