KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 0.2% 94%Market line of 8 lines
Above 0.2% 94%Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.7K
Open interest
$4K
Medium open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 4:15 PM UTCOct 29, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiArgentina Monthly Inflation - September
PolymarketWill Canada inflation be above Euro Area inflation in September?
KalshiRules
If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Resolution will use the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, including food and energy, published in the Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026. The first officially published September 2026 value will be used. Subsequent revisions will not affect the market outcome.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 0.1%
- If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.0%
- If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.2%
- If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.6%
- If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.7%
- If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.3%
- If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.4%
- If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.5%
- If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.