Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 53%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJun 20, 26, 9:17 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:25 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiWill September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsHeadline PCE inflation in Aug 2026
KalshiCore PCE MoM - August 2026
PolymarketCore PCE YoY - August 2026
PolymarketHow much will core PCE increase in Aug 2026?
KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that core PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month.
- Use the PCE price index excluding food and energy in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering September 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month.
- Resolve NO if the initial September 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative.
- Do not use headline PCE, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial September 2026 release before resolution.
- If the September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the September 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by December 4, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "april_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "april_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "april_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8, "next_release_at_creation": "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25 at 08:30 AM Eastern; June 2026 scheduled for 2026-07-30; September 2026 scheduled for 2026-11-04.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Core PCE price index percent change from August 2026 to September 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["PCE inflation markets for earlier reference months are prior-reference-month markets, not September 2026 duplicates.", "September 2026 headline PCE inflation uses the all-items PCE price index, while this market excludes food and energy.", "September 2026 headline CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates.", "Headline PCE price-index markets are not duplicates because this market excludes food and energy."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 for 2026-11-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026", "series": "PCE price index excluding food and energy", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
- Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.1K
- 24h Vol
- $41.4K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $644.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.4K
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation China - Annual
- 0.7% - 0.8%+56.5pt100%
- ≤0.2%-0.5pt0%
- 0.3% - 0.4%-7.3pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI core in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- CPI-U index in August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 53% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month? resolve?
- Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that core PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month.