PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: October 31
Resolved: Oct 8, 2026, 6:34 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
October 31
At 7 days out
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At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 9, 2026, 2:36 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
October 31100%
October 31Won
August 31Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.386699° N, 37.105096° E in Shevchenko, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances