PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
October 31 51%+1.0pt
Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$13
Liquidity
$4.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
47.0% / 55.0%
Spread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-9.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 6, 26, 12:16 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.386699° N, 37.105096° E in Shevchenko, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
- The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.