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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31?
Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31?

Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31?

10.0% (24h)Russia / UkraineOne-OffTech1mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 13%-0.1%
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$98.3

Liquidity

$4.1K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

9.0% / 16.0%

Spread

77.8%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Jun 5, 26, 10:37 PMJul 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes13%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
  • If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
  • For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
  • If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
  • Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
  • If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
  • For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
  • If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
  • Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.