PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 0.2%
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 2:47 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
0.2%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
28%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 1, 2026, 12:31 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
0.2%100%
0.4%3%
0.5%+3%
0.3%0%
0.2%Won
≤-0.1%Lost
0.0%Lost
0.1%Lost
0.3%Lost
0.4%Lost
0.5%+Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How much will core PCE increase in Sep 2026?
KalshiHow much will core PCE increase in Nov 2026?
KalshiHow much will core PCE increase in Oct 2026?
KalshiWill the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceed 3.6% in September 2026?
ForecastExWill the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceed 3.2% in September 2026?
ForecastExWill the year-over-year change in the US Core PCE Price Index exceed 3.4% in September 2026?
ForecastExMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
- The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.