PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 95%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$9.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 6.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 13, 26, 9:03 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
PolymarketWill any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
PolymarketPete Hoekstra out as US Ambassador to Canada?
KalshiWill Canada expel the US ambassador in 2026?
PredictItUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
PolymarketHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata.
- Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
- An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Open markets
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 3155%
- October 31+0.5pt30.6%
- September 30+5.0pt14.4%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $124.2K
- 24h Vol
- $7.8K
KALSHISouth Carolina ports total container volume in 2026
- Above 2.2 million TEUs94%
- Above 2.3 million TEUs84%
- Above 2.4 million TEUs56%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16K
- 24h Vol
- $5.5K
KALSHIWhat will John Ternus say during his Apple Keynote?
- Fold / Folding / Foldable+4.0pt88%
- Ultra+5.0pt87%
- Apple Intelligence83%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.6K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
- Canadian aircraft+10.0pt34%
- Wind turbines23%
- Critical minerals-29.0pt11%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes-7.0pt70%
- No30%
- Total Vol
- $2.1K
- 24h Vol
- $794
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- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- What will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31??
- Polymarket prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31? resolve?
- Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.