PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Other
Resolved: Sep 7, 2026, 6:03 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Other100%
claude-opus-5-max0%
claude-opus-4-6-high0%
claude-opus-5-high0%
OtherWon
claude-opus-5-highLost
claude-opus-5-maxLost
claude-opus-4-6-highLost
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- No new model will be added to this market after market creation.
- Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.