PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
4.2% 30%+0.5ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$757.6
Liquidity
$14.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Aug 7, 26, 5:10 PMSep 4, 26, 8:30 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
- The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
- The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued.
- Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
- If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference 4.2% 33% · 2 venues · 0 pt band
- Also available on Kalshi — Unemployment rate in Aug 2026? · Exactly 4.2% 26%
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.4% in August 2026? · No 97%
- Also available on Limitless — August Unemployment Rate · 4.2% 29%
- Also available on Futuur — US unemployment rate — August 2026 · Above 3.7% 95%
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for August Unemployment Rate?
- Polymarket prices 4.2% at 30% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does August Unemployment Rate resolve?
- August Unemployment Rate is scheduled to resolve on September 4, 2026.
- How is August Unemployment Rate settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
- Where else is August Unemployment Rate listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, ForecastEx, Limitless, Futuur.
