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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 69.2%
Forecasters
48
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 24, 9:23 PM UTCMar 1, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Kim Jong Un stop being the leader of North Korea before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?
Manifold MarketsWill Vladimir Putin stop being the leader of Russia before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?
Manifold MarketsWill Recep Tayyip Erdogan stop being the leader of Turkey before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?
Manifold MarketsXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketWho will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China.
- AGI questions:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
