Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?
One-OffAIRussia / UkrainePoliticsManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.8%
Forecasters
68
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 30, 23, 11:12 PM UTCMar 1, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan stop being the leader of Turkey before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?
Manifold MarketsWill Kim Jong Un stop being the leader of North Korea before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?
Manifold MarketsWill Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?
PolymarketTrump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia.
- AGI questions:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia? resolve?
- Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2050.
- How is Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.