Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78.1%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 8:35 PM UTCMay 31, 29, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill the annual average strength of the AMOC fall below 8 Sverdrups for any calendar year through 2030?
ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) Victoria region time-weighted annual average wholesale spot price for calendar year 2028 exceeds A$115/MWh, as reported by AEMO in its Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2028 release and the 2028 calendar-year summary on the AEMO data dashboard.
- Resolution evaluated once on the settlement date against the published figure.
- Settlement: 31 May 2029 — about five months after year-end, allowing AEMO time to publish confirmed calendar-year averages.
- Created: 2026-05-04
- The forward drivers, project schedules, and strike calibration below reflect public information available on the creation date.
- Coal-plant retirement dates, transmission and storage commissioning, gas-supply contracts, capacity auctions, and policy interventions in electricity markets have moved repeatedly in both directions over the past several years and are likely to continue moving.
