Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 8:35 PM UTCMay 31, 28, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?
Manifold MarketsWill the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?
Manifold MarketsWill the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?
Manifold MarketsWill the annual average strength of the AMOC fall below 8 Sverdrups for any calendar year through 2030?
ForecastExPennsylvania annual-average manufacturing employment in 2026
KalshiChina strategic oil inventories in Q3 2026
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) Victoria region time-weighted annual average wholesale spot price for calendar year 2027 exceeds A$105/MWh, as reported by AEMO in its Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2027 release and the 2027 calendar-year summary on the AEMO data dashboard.
- Resolution evaluated once on the settlement date against the published figure.
- Settlement: 31 May 2028 — about five months after year-end, allowing AEMO time to publish confirmed calendar-year averages.
- Created: 2026-05-04
- The forward drivers, project schedules, and strike calibration below reflect public information available on the creation date.
- Coal-plant retirement dates, transmission and storage commissioning, gas-supply contracts, capacity auctions, and policy interventions in electricity markets have moved repeatedly in both directions over the past several years and are likely to continue moving.
Open markets
China
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $110.1K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $41.2K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C-0.5pt50%
- 27°C+8.5pt27.4%
- 25°C-7.0pt15.7%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.5K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $13.8K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+4.5pt71.3%
- Moonshot-3.2pt26.7%
- Z.ai-0.8pt1%
+8 more outcomes
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh? resolve?
- Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh? is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2028.
- How is Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) Victoria region time-weighted annual average wholesale spot price for calendar year 2027 exceeds A$105/MWh, as reported by AEMO in its Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2027 release and the 2027 calendar-year summary on the AEMO data dashboard.