Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.3%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 8:35 PM UTCMay 31, 29, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?
Manifold MarketsWill Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?
Manifold MarketsWill the WA SWIS annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 90 AUD per MWh?
Manifold MarketsWill Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?
Manifold MarketsWill the annual average strength of the AMOC fall below 8 Sverdrups for any calendar year through 2030?
ForecastExPennsylvania annual-average manufacturing employment in 2026
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if the Western Australia South West Interconnected System (SWIS) Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) time-weighted annual average wholesale price for calendar year 2028 exceeds A$150/MWh, as reported by AEMO on its WEM data dashboard and Quarterly Energy Dynamics WA section.
- Resolution evaluated once on the settlement date against the published figure.
- Settlement: 31 May 2029 — about five months after year-end, allowing AEMO time to publish confirmed calendar-year averages.
- Created: 2026-05-04
- The forward drivers, project schedules, and strike calibration below reflect public information available on the creation date.
- Coal-plant retirement dates, transmission and storage commissioning, gas-supply contracts, capacity auctions, and policy interventions in electricity markets have moved repeatedly in both directions over the past several years and are likely to continue moving.
