Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (82.7%)
Resolved: Oct 2, 2026, 12:30 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 3, 2026, 12:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
Manifold MarketsU.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter?
KalshiWill the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September 2026, as first reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, is less than zero (i.e. the U.S. economy shed jobs on net in September).
- Resolves NO if that first-reported change is zero or positive.
- Only the first print counts.
- Later monthly revisions, the annual benchmark revision, and any subsequent restatement are irrelevant to this market.
- Source (named oracle): the BLS Employment Situation news release at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm — the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change in Total nonfarm employment (Establishment Survey / Table B-1).
- The September 2026 release is scheduled for Friday, October 2, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
