Commercial property prices down >20% YoY as of Oct 2027?
One-OffMacro & EconomyBusiness & Corporate1yBelow -20%
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 9:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Yes · —
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Stored price
Yes 94.5%
Yes 94.5%Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.5K
Open interest
$42.6
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
YesSpread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 22, 26, 11:00 PM UTCNov 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Yes
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Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Green Street
- The Underlying is the 12-month percentage change in the U.S. All-Property Commercial Property Price Index reported by Green Street for October 2027, comparing October 2027 with October 2026. The published 12-month percentage change is used directly, at the precision reported in the release’s headline or accompanying narrative. No percentage change is independently calculated from index levels, and no additional rounding is applied. “Below −20%” means strictly less than −20%; a reported change of exactly −20.0% resolves No. The first published October 2027 figure is used, including if designated preliminary or estimated. Subsequent corrections and revisions are ignored. Only the October 2027 observation determines the outcome. A decline exceeding 20% in an earlier month does not independently satisfy the condition. Publication delays do not change the observation month; missing or discontinued data are handled under the governing contract’s provisions.
Rules for each outcome
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.