Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
PoliticsOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.7%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleApr 27, 26, 8:31 PM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Announcing the Corrigibility Research Fund" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Update on the Alex Bores campaign is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markets
PoliticsKALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Total Vol
- $29.2M
- 24h Vol
- $945.4K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.4%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.7M
- 24h Vol
- $656.2K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate46.6%
- D-House, R-Senate35.9%
- R-House, R-Senate-1.0pt15.5%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.2M
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-1.4pt98%
- Dan McKee+1.4pt2%
- Gregory Stevens-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $858.7K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva52%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.0pt45.1%
- Renan Santos+0.8pt2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-1.0pt74%
- New People (NL)+0.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Texas Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.
- How is Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.