Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (91.3%)
Resolved: Oct 22, 2026, 11:20 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningSource data degradedStale data
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, from October 21, 2026 to December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, the Ukrainian Armed Forces or Ukrainian state-directed security services conduct a confirmed strike (via drone, missile, artillery, air strike, or cross-border ground assault) that hits a target situated within internationally recognized Russian sovereign territory.
- "Internationally recognized Russian sovereign territory" refers strictly to territory recognized globally as part of the Russian Federation prior to 2014.
- Strikes exclusively targeting Russian-occupied or annexed areas of Ukraine (including Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts) do not qualify.
- The strike must be corroborated by credible reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC News), or official public acknowledgments by Ukrainian or Russian government/military authorities.
- Claims by non-state militant groups (such as anti-Kremlin partisan legions) will only count if credible reporting or official statements attribute direction, coordination, or execution to Ukrainian official forces.