FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 83%
No 83%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityTraders
4
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Rules
This market predicts whether NATO or the armed forces of a NATO member state will carry out kinetic military action within the internationally recognized territory of the Russian Federation at any time between January 1, 2026 at 00:00 UTC and December 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC (inclusive).
- If such action occurs during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Cyber operations, electronic warfare, accidental incidents promptly acknowledged as such, mere troop deployments or exercises, interceptions of aircraft, drones, or missiles outside Russian territory, and the supply of weapons, funding, or intelligence to Ukraine will not count.
- Military action carried out by Ukrainian forces — including with allied-supplied weapons — will not count.
- To qualify, the action must be officially confirmed: the Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmations by NATO, the member state(s) involved, or the Russian government acknowledging such action.
