Current community forecast
No 83.3%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleDec 15, 25, 9:26 PM UTCDec 31, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will there be ≥10GW of data center capacity in space?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a data center on the moon Europa by EOY 2066?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
KalshiAI data center in space by which date?
PolymarketWill another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
KalshiRules
Grok likes the idea: https://x.com/i/grok/share/6otnrhQyi5w5ras6YOK5vtq7n
- Update 2025-12-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Data centers in orbit around the moon do NOT count - only data centers physically on the lunar surface will count toward the 1 GW threshold.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2026-2.5pt6.9%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
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- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.3pt57.7%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.9%
- Grok-2.4pt5.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt79.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.1%
- Gemini2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $405.1K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032? resolve?
- Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2032.
- How is Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Grok likes the idea: https://x.com/i/grok/share/6otnrhQyi5w5ras6YOK5vtq7n